Resumo

SANCHEZ-JUAREZ, Isaac. Business cycles in Mexico: identification, amplitude and duration. Economía UNAM [online]. 2019, vol.16, n.47, pp.93-108.  Epub 30-Jun-2020. ISSN 1665-952X.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.24488143e.2019.47.464.

This document aims to identify through the Hodrik-Prescott (HP) and Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) filters economic cycles in Mexico from the period 1993/01 to 2017/04; also expose its duration, depth, volatility and correlation with consumption, public spending, investment, exports and imports. For this, quarterly series of GDP seasonally adjusted to 2013 prices in millions of pesos were used. The cycles were obtained by distinguishing between the observed series and its trend, using as softening factors the values 1600 and 1096 (in the case of HP filter). Thus, in 24 years three complete cycles were identified, three recessions and two crises. The magnitude and duration of the cycles, particularly in their recessive stage, shows that macroeconomic policy (fiscal and monetary) has not been efficient in its task of achieving that the observed GDP remains close to its trend, and therefore it must be redesigned to contribute to both short-term stability and long-term growth.

Palavras-chave : Econometric methods; Econometris Modeling; Business fluctuations and Cycles Consumption; Saving; Production; Employment and Investment; C2; C5; E32; E2.