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Investigación económica
versión impresa ISSN 0185-1667
Inv. Econ vol.62 no.240 Ciudad de México abr./jun. 2002
Artículos
Liberalización comercial y la demanda de importaciones en México*
Trade Liberalization and Import Demand in Mexico
*Asesor Regional, Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe. Correo electrónico: jcmoreno@un.org.mx
El presente artículo examina en que medida la estrategia de apertura comercial de México, puesta en marcha a partir de 1985-1986, ha provocado un cambio estructural en la demanda de importaciones a nivel agregado. Los resultados aquí obtenidos mediante el análisis econométrico -que explícitamente considera la influencia de las restricciones cualitativas a la importación aplicadas por México- sugieren que, en efecto, se ha dado una modificación sustancial en parámetros fundamentales de dicha demanda. Más específicamente, detecta u n incremento significativo en su elasticidad-ingreso y una disminución en su elasticidad-precio. Tales cambios pue den ser importantes para consideraciones de política, en particular, pueden servir de base para una mejor estimación de los requerimientos de divisas que México necesita para lograr insertarse en una senda de elevado y sostenido crecimiento.
Based on the standard Jog linear model -but revised to include import licensing- this paper examines whether Mexico' s trade liberalization strategy, firmly implemented from 1985-86 onwards, has been associated with a structural break in import demand. The results of the analysis carried out suggest a break in Mexican import demand coincident with the opening of its domestic market. The evidence indicates that there has been an increase in its income elasticity and a decline in its price elasticity. Such changes may be important for policy considerations, in particular, they may help to better estimate Mexico's foreign exchange requirements under different paths of expansion of domestic demand.
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Recibido: Junio de 2001; Aprobado: Noviembre de 2001
Este es un artículo publicado en acceso abierto bajo una licencia Creative Commons
