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Política y gobierno
versión impresa ISSN 1665-2037
Polít. gob vol.13 no.1 Ciudad de México ene./jun. 2006
Ensayo bibliográfico
Determinantes y características de los independientes en México
1 Doctor en Ciencia Política por la Universidad de California, San Diego. Consultor en Central de Estrategias Políticas. Berlín núm. 57, Col. Del Carmen Coyoacán, México, D.F., 04100. México. Correo electrónico: lmestrada@cepol.com.mx.
La identificación partidista es la variable que mejor predice el voto de los individuos. Los independientes (quienes no se identifican con ningún partido) representan en México una tercera parte del electorado desde hace ms de una década. Al utilizar datos de la Segunda Encuesta Nacional sobre Cultura Política y Prácticas Ciudadanas (ENCUP), levantada en marzo de 2003, se encuentra que los independientes en México son ms escolarizados que los partidistas, pertenecen a los estratos sociales ms altos, no les interesa tanto la política, no votan, desconfían de las instituciones políticas y piensan que México no vive en democracia. Los independientes resultan potencialmente decisivos en un contexto electoral competitivo, dada su volatilidad y sensibilidad a las campañas políticas.
Palabras clave: identificación partidista; independientes; voto estratégico; imputación múltiple; regresión logística
Party identification is the best predictor of vote choice. Independents (those who do not identify with any party) represent in Mexico around a third of the electorate since more than a decade ago. Using data from the Second National Survey of Political Culture and Citizen Customs (ENCUP), carried out in March 2003, I find that independents in Mexico have more education than partisans, belong to a higher social class, are not as interested in politics, do not vote, do not trust political institutions, and think that Mexico does not live in full democracy. Independents are potentially decisive in a competitive electoral context, given their volatility and sensibility to political campaigns.
Keywords: party identification; independents; strategic voting; multiple imputation
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Recibido: Septiembre de 2004; Aprobado: Febrero de 2005
Este es un artículo publicado en acceso abierto bajo una licencia Creative Commons
