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Política y gobierno
versión impresa ISSN 1665-2037
Polít. gob vol.14 no.1 Ciudad de México ene./jun. 2007
Artículos
La identificación partidista en las elecciones presidenciales de 2000 y 2006 en México
Party Identification in the 2000 and 2006 Presidential Elections in Mexico
* Profesor de Ciencia Política en el Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), Río Hondo 1, col. Tizapán San Ángel, México, D.F. 01000. Correo electrónico: amoreno@itam.mx.
** Programa de Maestría en Sociología Política en el Instituto de Investigaciones Doctor José María Luis Mora, México. Correo electrónico: pmendez@institutomora.edu.mx.
En este artículo analizamos los patrones de cambio en la identificación partidista de los mexicanos en las elecciones presidenciales de 2000 y 2006. A partir de la información recopilada en encuestas nacionales de salida realizadas a los votantes, nuestro análisis se enfoca en tres fenómenos observados e interrelacionados relativos al partidismo: primero, una leve disminución del partidismo no sólo entre quienes salieron a votar, sino entre el electorado en general. Segundo, a pesar de que la identificación partidista se mantiene como una de las variables explicativas más importantes del voto en México, se observa un debilitamiento en el voto partidario de una elección a otra, como lo evidencian los niveles de voto cruzado y voto dividido registrados en cada elección. Y tercero, un análisis multivariado con datos de ambos años muestra cambios significativos en la composición social e ideológica del partidismo, señalando una realineación partidaria importante entre ciertos segmentos del electorado mexicano. De 2000 a 2006, el PRI perdió identificados en nichos históricos, como las mujeres y los votantes rurales, muchos de los cuales se trasladaron al PAN y al PRD. Por otra parte, nuestro análisis documenta un traslado de votantes de izquierda del PAN al PRD, y una desalineación de votantes de escolaridad superior.
Palabras clave: voto cruzado; voto dividido; voto partidario; identificación partidista; realineación partidista; desalineación partidaria; elecciones mexicanas
In this article, we analyze the patterns of change in party identification observed in the 2000 and 2006 presidential elections in Mexico. Based primarily on national exit poll data, we focus on three observed and interrelated phenomena: first, there was a slight decline in the level of partisanship observed not only among voters who turned out, but also among the electorate at large. Secondly, party identification remains one of the most important explanatory variables of the vote in Mexico, but partisan voting was slightly weaker in 2006, as evidenced by the levels of cross-over voting and split-ticket voting in each election. Finally, a multivariate analysis based on these data shows significant changes in the social and ideological composition of party identification, providing evidence of how partisan realignment among segments of the Mexican electorate is taking place. From 2000 to 2006, formerly strong PRI identifiers, such as women and rural voters, adopted identification with either PAN or PRD. Our analysis also documents transformations such as leftist PAN voters changing to PRD and highly educated voters becoming increasingly independent.
Key words: cross-over voting; split-ticket voting; partisan vote; party identification; realignment; dealignment; Mexican elections
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Recibido: Septiembre de 2006; Aprobado: Octubre de 2006
Este es un artículo publicado en acceso abierto bajo una licencia Creative Commons
