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Journal of applied research and technology

versión On-line ISSN 2448-6736versión impresa ISSN 1665-6423

J. appl. res. technol vol.6 no.3 Ciudad de México dic. 2008

 

Four laws for today and tomorrow

 

Petar Kocovic

 

Belgrade, Serbia.

 

ABSTRACT

For the last twenty years, one field has had a very important impact on our lives and economy. Related to technology, some observations in IT and ICT fields, started in the mid-seventies would have an impact in the next decade. Very dramatic and fast changes on the telecommunication technology and on the theory of information in general were defined by four rules from which three are non-technical and were defined by people who belonged to the business world rather than to the science field. Shannon (1947), Moore (1965), Metcalfe (1985) and Gilder (1990s) defined the fast development of the ICT and the telecommunications sector. Their formulations would become some sort of laws which will be valid throughout the first decade of 21st century.

Keywords: Gilder's Law, Metcalfe's Law, Moore's Law, Shannon's Law.

 

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REFERENCES

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[2] Michael Pupin, "From Immigrant to Inventor", Columbia University Press, 1924, reprint 2003        [ Links ]

[3] Thomas Friedman: The Lexus and the Olive Tree", Harper Collins Publishers, 2000, pp xvi        [ Links ]

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[5] C. E. Shannon, "A Mathematical Theory of Communication", Bell Syst. Techn. J., Vol. 27, pp. 379-423, 623-656, July, October, 1948.         [ Links ]

[6] J. R. Pierce, "The Early Days of Information Theory", IEEE Trans. on Information Theory, Vol. IT-19, No. 1, January 1973.         [ Links ]

[7] Moore E. Gordon: "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965        [ Links ]

[8] Tuomi Ilkka: "The Lives and Dead of Moore's law", First Monday, volume 7, number 11 (November 2002), URL: http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html        [ Links ]

[9] B. Metcalfe, "Metcalfe's Law: A network becomes more valuable as it reaches more users," Infoworld, Oct. 2, 1995. See also the May 6, 1996 column, http://www.infoworld.com/cgi-bin/displayNew.pl?/metcalfe/bm050696.html.         [ Links ]

[10] Andrew Odlyzko, Benjamin Tilly: A refutation of Metcalfe's Law and a better estimate for the value of networks and network interconnections, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law        [ Links ]

[11] G. Gilder, "Metcalfe's Law and legacy," Forbes ASAP, Sept. 13, 1993        [ Links ]

[12] Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts, National Intelligence Council, part of CIA, December 2000        [ Links ]

[13] www.worldbank.com, IT and ICT data, last data were from 2003        [ Links ]

[14] James Redfield: "The Celestine Prophecy", Warner Books, first published 1993        [ Links ]

[15] Roger Woolfe, Andy Roswell-Jones, N. Venkatraman: Executive Summary: Capturing Network-Era Opportunity, Gartner, June 2003        [ Links ]

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