A Bayesian Combination Forecasting Model for Retail Supply Chain Coordination

 

W.J. Wang*¹ and Q. Xu²

 

Glorious Sun School of Business and Management, Donghua University, Shanghai, P. R. China. *wenjiew@dhu.edu.cn

 

ABSTRACT

Retailing plays an important part in modern economic development, and supply chain coordination is the research focus in retail operations management. This paper reviews the collaborative forecasting process within the framework of the collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment of retail supply chain. A Bayesian combination forecasting model is proposed to integrate multiple forecasting resources and coordinate forecasting processes among partners in the retail supply chain. Based on simulation results for retail sales, the effectiveness of this combination forecasting model is demonstrated for coordinating the collaborative forecasting processes, resulting in an improvement of demand forecasting accuracy in the retail supply chain.

Keywords: Keywords: Bayesian Combination Forecasting Model, Retail Supply Chain Coordination, Collaborative Forecasting, Forecasting Accuracy.

 

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Acknowledgements

This research was partly supported by grants from the Shanghai Science Foundation Council (12ZR1400900), the Chinese National Science Foundation Council (71172174), Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (20110075110003), Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (12ZS58) and National Key Technology R&D Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology (2012BAH19F00). Thanks to the editor and referees at the Journal of Applied Research and Technology.

 

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